# Section 5.04 Near-Miss Screen — Philadelphia

**Vintage:** ACS 2020–2024 5-year (2024 endpoint)
**Metro benchmark:** Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area, MFI $116,434 (MOE ±$830)
**Pathway A threshold (70% MFI):** $81,504
**Pathway B thresholds:** poverty ≥ 20% AND MFI ≤ $145,542

## Method

Of 408 Philadelphia County census tracts in the ACS 2020–2024 vintage, 218 appear on the IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-14 official Low-Income Community list. This screen evaluates the remaining 190 non-listed tracts for ACS margin-of-error overlap with the OBBBA LIC thresholds.

**Pathway A (MFI near-miss):** point-estimate MFI exceeds the 70% threshold, but the lower MOE bound on the estimate reaches the threshold or below.

**Pathway B (Poverty near-miss):** point-estimate poverty rate is below 20%, but the upper MOE bound reaches 20% or above, AND the tract's MFI is below the 125% threshold.

**Tiering:** *Strong* — point estimate within ~5% (or 2 pp for poverty) of the threshold AND the MOE crosses with reasonable margin (≥10% of the MOE). *Marginal* — meets one of those two conditions. *Stretch* — bare MOE crossing only.

## Results: 89 near-miss candidates

| Tier | Count |
|------|-------|
| Strong | 35 |
| Marginal | 46 |
| Stretch | 8 |

## Top 15 candidates (by tier and closeness to threshold)

| # | Tract | Tier | Pathway | MFI (±MOE) | Poverty (±MOE) | Strategic |
|---|-------|------|---------|------------|-----------------|-----------|
| 1 | Tract 358 *(GEOID 42101035800)* | Strong | A | $81,906 (±$21,471) | 11.7% (±6.4%) |  |
| 2 | Tract 24 *(GEOID 42101002400)* | Strong | A+B | $129,524 (±$58,297) | 19.8% (±7.4%) |  |
| 3 | Tract 30.02 *(GEOID 42101003002)* | Strong | A+B | $102,167 (±$47,485) | 19.8% (±9.2%) |  |
| 4 | Tract 258 *(GEOID 42101025800)* | Strong | A | $82,174 (±$34,048) | 4.2% (±3.0%) |  |
| 5 | Tract 364 *(GEOID 42101036400)* | Strong | A+B | $85,417 (±$17,758) | 19.5% (±9.3%) |  |
| 6 | Tract 42.02 *(GEOID 42101004202)* | Strong | A | $82,699 (±$15,196) | 11.5% (±7.0%) |  |
| 7 | Tract 32 *(GEOID 42101003200)* | Strong | A | $82,802 (±$16,300) | 5.4% (±3.3%) |  |
| 8 | Tract 122.04 *(GEOID 42101012204)* | Strong | A+B | $97,813 (±$17,874) | 19.3% (±5.7%) |  |
| 9 | Tract 372 *(GEOID 42101037200)* | Strong | A+B | $82,974 (±$17,680) | 12.3% (±9.1%) |  |
| 10 | Tract 263.01 *(GEOID 42101026301)* | Strong | A | $83,171 (±$10,923) | 5.1% (±2.4%) |  |
| 11 | Tract 262 *(GEOID 42101026200)* | Strong | A | $83,333 (±$10,324) | 8.2% (±5.0%) |  |
| 12 | Tract 365.01 *(GEOID 42101036501)* | Strong | A+B | $100,370 (±$27,836) | 18.9% (±8.3%) |  |
| 13 | Tract 121 *(GEOID 42101012100)* | Strong | A | $83,750 (±$39,231) | 8.6% (±4.5%) |  |
| 14 | Tract 86.02 *(GEOID 42101008602)* | Strong | A+B | $135,208 (±$112,814) | 18.8% (±6.7%) |  |
| 15 | Tract 238 *(GEOID 42101023800)* | Strong | A+B | $89,067 (±$28,256) | 18.7% (±7.1%) |  |

## One-sentence rationales (top 15)

- **Tract 358** *(GEOID 42101035800, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $81,906 is $402 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $60,435 is below it.
- **Tract 24** *(GEOID 42101002400, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $129,524 is $48,020 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $71,227 is below it. poverty 19.8% is -0.2 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 27.2%, and tract MFI $129,524 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 30.02** *(GEOID 42101003002, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $102,167 is $20,663 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $54,682 is below it. poverty 19.8% is -0.2 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 29.0%, and tract MFI $102,167 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 258** *(GEOID 42101025800, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $82,174 is $670 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $48,126 is below it.
- **Tract 364** *(GEOID 42101036400, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $85,417 is $3,913 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $67,659 is below it. poverty 19.5% is -0.5 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 28.8%, and tract MFI $85,417 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 42.02** *(GEOID 42101004202, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $82,699 is $1,195 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $67,503 is below it.
- **Tract 32** *(GEOID 42101003200, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $82,802 is $1,298 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $66,502 is below it.
- **Tract 122.04** *(GEOID 42101012204, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $97,813 is $16,309 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $79,939 is below it. poverty 19.3% is -0.7 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 25.0%, and tract MFI $97,813 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 372** *(GEOID 42101037200, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $82,974 is $1,470 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $65,294 is below it. poverty 12.3% is -7.7 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 21.4%, and tract MFI $82,974 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 263.01** *(GEOID 42101026301, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $83,171 is $1,667 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $72,248 is below it.
- **Tract 262** *(GEOID 42101026200, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $83,333 is $1,829 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $73,009 is below it.
- **Tract 365.01** *(GEOID 42101036501, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $100,370 is $18,866 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $72,534 is below it. poverty 18.9% is -1.1 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 27.2%, and tract MFI $100,370 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 121** *(GEOID 42101012100, Strong, Pathway A)* — MFI $83,750 is $2,246 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $44,519 is below it.
- **Tract 86.02** *(GEOID 42101008602, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $135,208 is $53,704 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $22,394 is below it. poverty 18.8% is -1.2 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 25.5%, and tract MFI $135,208 is under the 125% cap.
- **Tract 238** *(GEOID 42101023800, Strong, Pathway A+B)* — MFI $89,067 is $7,563 above the 70% cap ($81,504), but the lower MOE bound at $60,811 is below it. poverty 18.7% is -1.3 pp from the 20% floor, but +MOE reaches 25.8%, and tract MFI $89,067 is under the 125% cap.

## Cross-reference with the existing strategic swap slate

Of the **11 strategic swap candidates** we already flagged elsewhere in this analysis, **9 are already on the IRS official list** — they can be nominated through the standard Governor process without invoking § 5.04.

**The two strategic-swap candidates that are NOT on the IRS list both show up as Strong A+B near-misses in this screen** — meaning they have both a policy case (TOD corridor / city-priority initiative) AND a federal Section 5.04 case (ACS MOE bands cross the LIC threshold):

- **Tract 30.02** *(GEOID 42101003002)* — Tasker-Morris (S Broad); Strong, Pathway A+B, MFI $102,167 (±$47,485), poverty 19.8% (±9.2%).
- **Tract 238** *(GEOID 42101023800)* — Tulpehocken (Germantown); Strong, Pathway A+B, MFI $89,067 (±$28,256), poverty 18.7% (±7.1%).

## Other strategic geographies

**The Navy Yard, Lower Schuylkill Innovation Campus, and adjacent industrial tracts are already on the IRS official list** — no Section 5.04 nomination needed for those geographies. They appear in the existing 218-tract eligible set (GEOIDs 42101980200, 42101039100, 42101039002).

## Data-quality caveats

Candidates flagged as possible student-housing or institutional-population artifacts (high poverty + high family income — a pattern typical of tracts around Penn, Drexel, or Temple where undergraduates skew the poverty rate but the family-income measure reflects the small residential family population). These pass the math mechanically but the case is weaker:

- **Tract 88.01** *(GEOID 42101008801)* — poverty 47.7%, MFI $155,469

## Sanity checks

- Total Philly tracts: **408** (matches the ACS universe for state=42, county=101)
- IRS-listed Philly tracts: **218** (193 pass at least one OBBBA pathway on point estimates; the remainder were either listed under separate methodology timing or carry valid MOE-band cases)
- Screen universe (non-listed): **190**
- Metro benchmark: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area, MFI $116,434 from ACS 2024 5-year — vintage matches the IRS methodology footnote

## Files

- `outputs/oz_section_504_candidates.csv` — full candidate table with bounds and tiers
- `outputs/SECTION_504_SCREEN.md` — this summary
- `inputs/section_504/rp-26-14-appendix.xlsx` — IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-14 official list