Impact Analysis: What the Expansion Actually Covers
Bills 260517–260520, enacted June 11, 2026, expand the TOC overlay from 500 ft to 1,320 ft around 13 Market-Frankford Line stations. Only parcels with eligible zoning receive new development capacity. This page shows the scope.
The Expansion: 500 ft vs. 1,320 ft
How many more commercially-zoned parcels does the radius expansion actually capture?
The existing 500 ft overlay covers 1,691 eligible parcels. The Parker expansion to 1,320 ft adds 7,529 more — a 5.5x increase.
Most Parcels in the Radius Are Unaffected
Of the 18,663 parcels within the expanded radius, most are single-family and receive zero changes.
Only 9,220 of 18,663 parcels (49.4%) in the expanded radius have zoning eligible for any TOC bonus. The remaining 9,443 are single-family residential (RSA, RSD), townhouse (RTA), and other categories explicitly excluded from additional density.
Eligible by Zoning District
Housing Potential: Counting Only Underused Lots
We count new homes only on underused lots with /TOC-eligible zoning within a quarter mile of a station entrance.
An underused lot is one whose existing building uses less than about a third of what zoning allows and is under 20,000 sq ft. Each lot is counted once, even when it sits within a quarter mile of more than one station. Both /TOC bonuses are applied to these lots only: the 30% floor-area bonus in CMX-3, CMX-4, CMX-5 and RMX-3, and the 50% unit bonus in CMX-1, CMX-2, CMX-2.5 and RM-1.
These are zoning capacity figures. They show how many homes the rules allow on these lots, not how many will be built or when. “Homes allowed today” is what current zoning already permits on the same lots; “new homes possible” is what the /TOC bonuses add on top.
| Rail line | Stations | Underused lots | Homes allowed today | New homes possible under /TOC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market-Frankford Line, 13 designated stations | 13 | 1,495 | 24,759 | 3,509 |
| Market-Frankford Line, other stations | 13 | 1,518 | 48,674 | 11,551 |
| Broad Street Line | 23 | 2,381 | 53,656 | 17,889 |
| Regional Rail (in Philadelphia) | 49 | 1,808 | 50,298 | 15,008 |
Market-Frankford Line Stations
| Station | Council district | Underused lots | Homes allowed today | Behind /MIN | Share behind /MIN | New homes possible under /TOC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th St * | D3, D4 | 168 | 3,984 | 3,652 | 92% | 122 |
| Erie-Torresdale * | D6, D7 | 41 | 3,962 | 587 | 15% | 1,086 |
| 46th St * | D3 | 57 | 3,527 | 3,527 | 100% | 0 |
| Spring Garden * | D1 | 61 | 3,005 | — | — | 970 |
| Frankford Transit Center * | D7 | 98 | 1,981 | 1,860 | 94% | 42 |
| Kensington-Allegheny * | D1, D6, D7 | 100 | 1,652 | 817 | 49% | 301 |
| 52nd St * | D3, D4 | 136 | 1,436 | 1,412 | 98% | 9 |
| 60th St * | D3, D4 | 257 | 1,329 | 735 | 55% | 301 |
| Somerset * | D1, D7 | 239 | 1,039 | 487 | 47% | 142 |
| Berks * | D1, D7 | 92 | 1,016 | 907 | 89% | 37 |
| Tioga * | D6, D7 | 112 | 951 | 272 | 29% | 247 |
| 63rd St * | D3, D4 | 163 | 870 | 339 | 39% | 266 |
| Huntingdon * | D1, D7 | 116 | 602 | 332 | 55% | 89 |
| MFL 11th St | D1 | 174 | 12,873 | — | — | 4,155 |
| MFL 8th St | D1 | 165 | 11,755 | — | — | 3,842 |
| MFL 15th St | D1, D2, D5 | 191 | 11,349 | — | — | 3,887 |
| MFL 13th St | D1, D2, D5 | 166 | 9,271 | — | — | 3,176 |
| Drexel Station at 30th St | D2, D3, D5 | 14 | 7,729 | 6,860 | 89% | 261 |
| 40th St | D3 | 154 | 4,658 | 4,658 | 100% | 0 |
| Front-Girard | D1, D5 | 89 | 3,137 | — | — | 1,075 |
| MFL 5th St | D1 | 77 | 2,602 | — | — | 886 |
| MFL 2nd St | D1 | 114 | 2,349 | — | — | 782 |
| Arrott Transit Center | D7 | 284 | 2,128 | 1,503 | 71% | 231 |
| Church | D7 | 241 | 1,855 | — | — | 745 |
| York-Dauphin | D1, D7 | 214 | 1,126 | 951 | 84% | 63 |
| 34th St | D3 | 6 | 541 | 541 | 100% | 0 |
Station-level figures for every line are on the TOC Scenario Map.
CMX-1 Reform: Unlocking Philadelphia's Neighborhood Commercial Corridors
The CMX-1 reform bill (260516), held in the Rules Committee, would replace CMX-1's borrowed limits with uniform CMX-2 standards on all 5,255 CMX-1 lots.
Today’s zoning allows about 7,380 homes on CMX-1 lots. The reform would allow about 17,018, or 9,638 more. Together with the /TOC bonuses the total is 17,028: few CMX-1 lots are near the designated stations, so /TOC adds only 10 homes on top of the reform.
Homes allowed on CMX-1 lots: today vs. with CMX-1 reform
Zoning capacity on all 5,255 CMX-1 lots, split by whether today’s limits can be pinned down (see below).
Why some CMX-1 lots are less certain
CMX-1 takes its height and density limits from the most restrictive neighboring non-CMX-1 district. For 3,712 lots (71%), that neighbor is clear. The other 1,543 lots (29%) sit on blocks that are entirely CMX-1, so the code refers back to itself and today’s limits can’t be resolved. The reform would give these lots clear CMX-2 standards, which is where much of the gain comes from.
Homes allowed on CMX-1 lots by council district
Lots with clear limits today only (3,712 lots); the lots with unclear limits are not broken out by district.
| District | Today's zoning | With CMX-1 reform | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| District 10 | 726 | 3,563 | +2,837 |
| District 9 | 465 | 1,268 | +803 |
| District 2 | 1,121 | 1,239 | +118 |
| District 1 | 612 | 981 | +369 |
| District 7 | 621 | 978 | +357 |
| District 5 | 851 | 960 | +109 |
| District 8 | 597 | 924 | +327 |
| District 6 | 365 | 766 | +401 |
| District 4 | 300 | 573 | +273 |
| District 3 | 179 | 194 | +15 |
Reform Losers: 392 Parcels Would Lose Capacity
Not every CMX-1 parcel benefits from uniform CMX-2 standards. 392 parcels currently abut higher-density districts (CMX-2.5, RM-2, etc.) and inherit standards that exceed CMX-2. Under the reform bill, these parcels would be downzoned to CMX-2 capacity, losing an estimated 1,368 units of capacity. The net gain is still 9,638 homes, but owners of those lots may object.
The MIN Gate
The Mixed-Income Neighborhoods overlay requires 20% of units at 40% of area median income, with no subsidy, on projects of 10 or more units. Much of the capacity near the Market-Frankford Line sits behind it.
28,920 homes allowed today near rail stations sit behind /MIN
The /TOC 30% floor-area bonus does not apply inside /MIN (§14-513(5)(a)(.2)). /MIN has its own floor-area limit instead: Table 14-533-4 gives /MIN parcels a higher floor-area ratio than the base district, available only to projects that meet the affordability requirement, which carries no subsidy.
Across all 98 stations, 1,423 underused lots are inside /MIN. Current zoning allows 28,920 homes on them, 22% of the 129,528 homes allowed today on underused lots near rail. At the 13 designated stations the share is 59%: 14,565 of 24,759.
What we are not claiming
These figures are capacity behind the requirement, not a count of homes lost. We make no estimate of how many homes /MIN costs transit-oriented development. BPN’s MIN study finds the overlay as a whole is associated with roughly 1,000–1,400 fewer homes against a market-strength-matched control. That is an overlay-wide finding; we do not apportion it to the transit zones or subtract it from any /TOC figure.
Inside /MIN, our /TOC figures count the 50% unit bonus as zero. The law bars only the floor-area bonus there, but any unit-bonus homes would carry the /MIN requirement, so we leave them out.
Homes Allowed Today on Underused Lots Near Rail, and the Share Behind /MIN
| Council district | Underused lots in /MIN | Homes behind /MIN | Homes allowed today | Share behind /MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D3 (Gauthier) | 560 | 18,350 | 19,792 | 93% |
| D4 (Jones) | 60 | 3,150 | 5,934 | 53% |
| D7 (Lozada) | 803 | 7,420 | 10,773 | 69% |
Why Is D3's Share So Large?
In D3 (Gauthier), 93% of the homes current zoning allows on underused lots near rail (18,350 of 19,792) are inside /MIN. The overlay covers most of the West Philadelphia stretch of the Market-Frankford Line; at 46th St, every home allowed today on underused lots is behind it. Station-by-station shares are in the Market-Frankford Line table above.
What Would Work Better?
The MIN overlay was intended to create affordable housing, but its unfunded 20% mandate at 40% AMI has coincided with a sharp decline in development activity. A funded inclusionary zoning program — like Portland’s, which pairs mandates with tax exemptions — would likely produce far more affordable housing without discouraging market-rate construction. See our full MIN impact analysis for the complete evidence, including difference-in-differences methodology and peer city comparisons.
Methodology & Data Sources
Parcel data: Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment (OPA) via CARTO. 551,712 eligible parcels with TOC-eligible zoning classifications citywide.
Housing potential: All home counts on this page come from Build Philly Now’s council-district memo engine, the same figures used in the district fact sheets and the TOC Scenario Map (parcel data as of 2026-10-08). Capacity is counted only on underused lots: lots under 20,000 sq ft whose existing building uses less than about a third of what zoning allows, with /TOC-eligible zoning, within 1,320 ft of a station entrance. Each lot is counted once.
Zoning capacity: Computed using BPN’s zoning rules engine, which implements Philadelphia Zoning Code (Title 14) dimensional standards tables (14-701-1 through 14-701-4). “Homes allowed today” is current-zoning capacity on underused lots. “New homes possible” is what the /TOC bonuses add: the 30% floor-area bonus in CMX-3, CMX-4, CMX-5 and RMX-3, and the 50% unit bonus in CMX-1, CMX-2, CMX-2.5 and RM-1. These are capacity figures, not forecasts of construction.
/MIN: We report the underused lots inside /MIN and the homes current zoning allows on them, which are subject to its 20%-at-40%-AMI requirement. Inside /MIN the /TOC unit bonus is counted as zero; the law bars only the floor-area bonus there, but any unit-bonus homes would carry the /MIN requirement.
Overlay restrictions: Parcels are selected by their recorded overlay designation — the /MIN tag and the per-station /TOC tag — rather than by council district, which redistricting has made unreliable. /FNE caps height at 35ft. /VDO caps CMX-2 density. /WST blocks bonuses in CMX-4.
Two claims we have withdrawn. Earlier versions modelled a §14-513(5)(a)(.2) “FAR block” and a behavioral deterrent obtained by multiplying a within-district difference-in-differences rate by a capacity ceiling. That modeled loss is withdrawn: the /TOC floor-area bonus does not apply in /MIN, but Table 14-533-4 gives /MIN parcels a higher FAR than the base district, conditioned on the affordability minimum, so no capacity is simply lost. And multiplying a rate by a capacity stock is a stock/flow error — it produced a /TOC-only deterrent larger than MIN’s entire measured citywide effect.
What replaces them. We report the capacity behind /MIN, and cite the MIN study’s overlay-wide finding (1,000–1,400 fewer homes against a market-strength-matched control) without apportioning it to the transit zones. Allocating it by capacity share is arithmetically possible but is a modelling assumption, not a measurement, so it is not published.
About 3,509 New Homes at 13 Stations; About 33,352 at All 98
Designating Broad Street Line and Regional Rail stations, strengthening the floor-area bonus, and funding the /MIN requirement would each widen what the TOC bills can deliver. Council should act.
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