TOC Impact Analysis
A parcel-by-parcel look at Mayor Parker's transit-oriented housing bills: what they cover, where new homes can go, and what stands in the way.
Build Philly Now · October 2026
Executive Summary
On June 11, 2026, City Council enacted four of Mayor Parker’s five transit-oriented communities bills (Bills 260517 through 260520). The main bill, HOME II, applies the /TOC overlay within a quarter mile of 13 Market-Frankford Line stations and gives eligible commercial and multifamily properties a floor-area or unit bonus. The fifth bill, CMX-1 reform (Bill 260516), is held in the Rules Committee. We analyzed every underused lot near Philadelphia’s rail stations to answer one question: how many new homes do the bills allow?
All three are zoning capacity figures, not forecasts of what will be built. The first two count the additional homes the /TOC bonuses allow; the third counts homes current zoning already allows inside the /MIN overlay. They measure different things and are not subtracted from one another. Sections 3 and 5 give the detail.
The enacted bills reach a small part of the city’s transit network. Near the 13 designated stations, /TOC allows about 3,509 new homes. Designating the other 85 Broad Street Line, Market-Frankford Line, and Regional Rail stations would raise that to about 33,352.
The Mixed-Income Neighborhoods (/MIN) overlay covers much of the land near the designated stations. There, 871 of the 1,495 underused lots are inside /MIN, and 14,565 of the 24,759 homes today’s zoning allows on those lots (59%) can be built only by setting aside 20% of units at 40% of area median income, with no subsidy.
We ask Council to pass CMX-1 reform, designate more stations, end parking minimums in the /TOC overlay, and fund and fix /MIN (Section 7).
1. What the Bill Covers
The expansion reaches further from stations — but the vast majority of affected land is single-family and receives zero changes.
Eligible Parcels: Before vs. After
What’s Inside the Expanded Radius?
The bill expands the TOC overlay from 500 feet to 1,320 feet (one-quarter mile) around station entrances. This increases eligible parcels by 5.5x — but even at the wider radius, only 1.7% of Philadelphia’s 551,712 parcels are affected. The other 9,443 parcels in the radius are single-family homes, townhouses, and other categories that receive no zoning changes whatsoever.
| Current (500 ft) | Expanded (1,320 ft) | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total parcels in radius | 3,255 | 18,663 | +15,408 |
| Eligible for TOC bonuses | 1,691 | 9,220 | +7,529 |
| Share of all city parcels | 0.3% | 1.7% | — |
Eligible Parcels by Zoning District
RM-1 (multi-family residential) accounts for 80.8% of eligible parcels. Density-bonus zones (RM-1, CMX-1, CMX-2, CMX-2.5) receive a 50% dwelling unit bonus. FAR-bonus zones (CMX-3, CMX-4, CMX-5, RMX-3) receive a 30% FAR bonus, except inside the /MIN overlay.
2. Where Can New Homes Go?
We count capacity only on underused lots: 1,495 near the 13 designated stations and 6,086 near all 98 rail stations.
A fully built rowhouse is unlikely to be torn down for a slightly larger building. To keep the estimates grounded, we count capacity only on underused lots: lots under 20,000 square feet whose existing buildings use less than about a third of what their zoning allows, including vacant land. A lot also has to carry /TOC-eligible zoning and sit within 1,320 feet (a quarter mile) of a station entrance. Each lot is counted once, even where station areas overlap.
Why This Matters
Underused lots are where new construction near transit is most likely to happen. Eligible parcels that are already built close to their zoning limits are left out of every figure in this memo, so the totals understate the long-term capacity the overlay creates.
3. How Many Homes?
The 13 designated stations allow about 3,509 new homes. All 98 rail stations would allow about 33,352.
Our zoning rules engine calculates how much each underused lot can hold under current zoning (“homes allowed today”) and how many more homes the /TOC bonuses add (“new homes possible”). The overlay gives a 30% floor-area bonus in CMX-3, CMX-4, CMX-5, and RMX-3, and a 50% unit bonus in CMX-1, CMX-2, CMX-2.5, and RM-1. Both bonuses are counted only on underused lots.
The floor-area bonus does not apply inside the /MIN overlay. The unit bonus does, but homes built with it there would carry the /MIN affordability requirement, so we do not count them.
| Station Area | Stations | Underused Lots | Homes Allowed Today | New Homes Possible |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Designated Market-Frankford Line stations | 13 | 1,495 | 24,759 | +3,509 |
| Other Market-Frankford Line stations | 13 | 1,518 | 48,674 | +11,551 |
| Broad Street Line stations | 23 | 2,381 | 53,656 | +17,889 |
| Regional Rail stations | 49 | 1,808 | 50,298 | +15,008 |
| All rail stations (each lot once) | 98 | 6,086 | 129,528 | +33,352 |
New Homes by Council District
| District | Stations (Designated) | Underused Lots | New Homes Possible | Homes Behind /MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Mark Squilla) | 21 (3) | 859 | +10,924 | — |
| 2 (Kenyatta Johnson) | 13 (0) | 182 | +1,984 | — |
| 3 (Jamie Gauthier) | 12 (5) | 802 | +646 | 18,350 |
| 4 (Curtis Jones Jr.) | 9 (3) | 209 | +1,085 | 3,150 |
| 5 (Jeffery Young Jr.) | 16 (0) | 1,819 | +9,170 | — |
| 6 (Michael Driscoll) | 6 (2) | 82 | +1,473 | — |
| 7 (Quetcy Lozada) | 10 (7) | 1,181 | +1,305 | 7,420 |
| 8 (Cindy Bass) | 28 (0) | 668 | +5,216 | — |
| 9 (Anthony Phillips) | 5 (0) | 63 | +425 | — |
| 10 (Brian O'Neill) | 4 (0) | 74 | +8 | — |
Market-Frankford Line Stations
| Station | Status | Homes Allowed Today | Behind /MIN | Share Behind /MIN | New Homes Possible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th St | Designated | 3,984 | 3,652 | 92% | +122 |
| Erie-Torresdale | Designated | 3,962 | 587 | 15% | +1,086 |
| 46th St | Designated | 3,527 | 3,527 | 100% | +0 |
| Spring Garden | Designated | 3,005 | — | — | +970 |
| Frankford Transit Center | Designated | 1,981 | 1,860 | 94% | +42 |
| Kensington-Allegheny | Designated | 1,652 | 817 | 49% | +301 |
| 52nd St | Designated | 1,436 | 1,412 | 98% | +9 |
| 60th St | Designated | 1,329 | 735 | 55% | +301 |
| Somerset | Designated | 1,039 | 487 | 47% | +142 |
| Berks | Designated | 1,016 | 907 | 89% | +37 |
| Tioga | Designated | 951 | 272 | 29% | +247 |
| 63rd St | Designated | 870 | 339 | 39% | +266 |
| Huntingdon | Designated | 602 | 332 | 55% | +89 |
| MFL 11th St | Not yet designated | 12,873 | — | — | +4,155 |
| MFL 8th St | Not yet designated | 11,755 | — | — | +3,842 |
| MFL 15th St | Not yet designated | 11,349 | — | — | +3,887 |
| MFL 13th St | Not yet designated | 9,271 | — | — | +3,176 |
| Drexel Station at 30th St | Not yet designated | 7,729 | 6,860 | 89% | +261 |
| 40th St | Not yet designated | 4,658 | 4,658 | 100% | +0 |
| Front-Girard | Not yet designated | 3,137 | — | — | +1,075 |
| MFL 5th St | Not yet designated | 2,602 | — | — | +886 |
| MFL 2nd St | Not yet designated | 2,349 | — | — | +782 |
| Arrott Transit Center | Not yet designated | 2,128 | 1,503 | 71% | +231 |
| Church | Not yet designated | 1,855 | — | — | +745 |
| York-Dauphin | Not yet designated | 1,126 | 951 | 84% | +63 |
| 34th St | Not yet designated | 541 | 541 | 100% | +0 |
4. The Construction Cost Cliff
In CMX-3, the 30% floor-area bonus can push a building past the height where wood-frame construction is allowed, into more expensive steel and concrete.
Buildings up to 7 stories can use wood-frame construction ($171/sqft in Philadelphia). At 8 stories, building codes require steel and concrete — a 32% cost jump to $216+/sqft.
The Parker bill’s 30% FAR bonus is calculated on the base FAR (500% × 1.3 = 650% FAR), adding +150% FAR — about two floors — and pushing typical buildings from 7 stories to 9. But 9 stories still requires Type I steel/concrete, and 650% FAR may not generate enough floor area to cover that cost. Where it does not, developers are likely to build 7 stories and leave the bonus unused.
What This Means for CMX-3
The capacity figures in this memo are zoning capacity. They do not subtract any homes for the cost cliff, because whether a given project crosses it depends on the site and the market. The cliff is a reason some of the floor-area bonus in CMX-3 may go unused.
Bill 260518, enacted June 11, 2026, doubles the §14-702(8) Transit Improvement Bonus, raising the CMX-3 ceiling within /TOC from 100% to 200% FAR. Stacked on the base, that lifts a building toward, and a full bonus stack past, the cost cliff. The Transit Improvement Bonus is earned, not by-right: a developer claims it only by spending a set share of hard costs on transit improvements, so it adds no automatic capacity. By-right, the flat 30% bonus still leaves projects at 9 stories.
5. The /MIN Requirement
Near the 13 designated stations, 59% of the homes today's zoning allows on underused lots sit inside /MIN, behind an affordability requirement with no subsidy attached.
The Mixed-Income Neighborhoods overlay, adopted in July 2022, requires projects of 10 or more units to set aside 20% of units as affordable at 40% of area median income, with no public subsidy. Table 14-533-4 gives /MIN parcels a higher FAR than the base district, but only for projects that meet the affordability minimum. The constraint is not a lower ceiling; it is a ceiling a project can reach only by absorbing an unfunded cost.
We report what /MIN gates: the underused lots inside the overlay and the homes today’s zoning allows on them. We do not estimate how many /TOC homes /MIN prevents, and we do not subtract /MIN figures from /TOC figures. /TOC’s floor-area bonus does not apply inside /MIN; the unit bonus does, but homes built with it would carry the /MIN requirement and are not counted in this memo.
/MIN follows the overlay map, not council district lines. Near rail stations, it reaches underused lots in Districts 3, 4, and 7.
| District | Underused Lots in /MIN | Homes Behind /MIN | Homes Allowed Today (All Underused Lots) | Share Behind /MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 (Jamie Gauthier) | 560 | 18,350 | 19,792 | 93% |
| 4 (Curtis Jones Jr.) | 60 | 3,150 | 5,934 | 53% |
| 7 (Quetcy Lozada) | 803 | 7,420 | 10,773 | 69% |
6. Other Overlay Restrictions
Two overlays restrict TOC bonus capacity in the expanded radius: /MIN (1,760 parcels) and /VDO (607). Other overlays like /SEV cover more parcels but impose no TOC dimensional or bonus limits.
| Overlay | Parcels | What It Does |
|---|---|---|
| /MIN (Mixed-Income) | 1,760 | Offers a higher FAR than the base district, conditioned on 20% of units at 40% AMI with no subsidy. The /TOC floor-area bonus does not apply. |
| /VDO (Village District) | 607 | Caps CMX-2 density at 2–3 units per lot, which limits the /TOC unit bonus. |
7. What Should Council Do?
Council enacted four of the Mayor's five transit-oriented communities bills on June 11, 2026. The fifth, CMX-1 reform, is held in the Rules Committee. It would end the rule that ties CMX-1 lots to their most restrictive residential neighbor, allow multifamily housing by right above a non-residential ground floor, and remove the 2,000-square-foot cap on first-floor commercial space. Council should pass it without weakening its housing provisions.
The enacted overlay covers 13 of the city's 98 Broad Street Line, Market-Frankford Line, and Regional Rail stations and allows about 3,509 new homes. Designating all 98 would allow about 33,352. District Council Members should introduce amendments adding the stations in their districts (Section 8).
The enacted bill cuts parking requirements by half, with a five-space minimum, but does not remove them. Required parking takes land and money that could go to homes. Council should eliminate parking minimums within the overlay.
/MIN's 20%-at-40%-AMI requirement carries no subsidy. It gates 28,920 homes of current zoning capacity on 1,423 underused lots near rail stations, including 59% of the homes today's zoning allows near the designated stations. The MIN study finds roughly 1,000–1,400 fewer homes across the overlay than a matched control group. Pairing the requirement with funding, such as the tax exemptions Portland offers alongside its inclusionary mandate, would let projects meet it.
8. The Stations We Want Added
85 more rail stations. Designating them alongside the 13 enacted Market-Frankford Line stations would allow about 33,352 new homes, 9.5 times the 3,509 the designated stations allow alone.
Our second core ask is for District Council Members to introduce amendments designating the stations in their districts. The cards below cover every Broad Street Line, Market-Frankford Line, and Regional Rail station the bill reserves for later designation.
Broad Street Line
23 stations- 15th St/City Hall+6,010
- Walnut-Locust+4,225
- Race-Vine+1,827
- Chinatown+1,330
- Erie+1,225
- Broad-Spring Garden+1,127
- Susquehanna-Dauphin+932
- Fairmount+857
- North Philadelphia+803
- Broad-Girard+707
- Lombard-South+662
- Hunting Park+585
- Ellsworth-Federal+555
- Wyoming+548
- Broad-Allegheny+535
- Cecil B. Moore+376
- Logan+343
- Snyder+300
- Olney Transit Center+274
- Oregon+170
- Fern Rock Transit Center+99
- Tasker-Morris+59
- NRG Station—
Rest of the Market-Frankford Line
13 stations- MFL 11th St+4,155
- MFL 15th St+3,887
- MFL 8th St+3,842
- MFL 13th St+3,176
- Front-Girard+1,075
- MFL 5th St+886
- MFL 2nd St+782
- Church+745
- Drexel Station at 30th St+261
- Arrott Transit Center+231
- York-Dauphin+63
- 34th St—
- 40th St—
Regional Rail
49 stations- Jefferson+4,186
- Suburban+4,130
- North Broad+961
- Chelten Av+792
- North Philadelphia Septa+625
- Germantown+598
- Temple University+575
- East Falls+482
- Chestnut Hill West+477
- Gray 30th St Station+328
- Wayne Junction+234
- Chestnut Hill East+223
- Stenton+219
- Torresdale+194
- Manayunk+176
- Richard Allen Ln+166
- Bridesburg+156
- Ryers+147
- Gravers+143
- Overbrook+143
- Wissahickon+138
- Angora+124
- Wister+123
- Mount Airy+106
- Olney+92
- Washington Ln+82
- Allegheny+78
- Carpenter+54
- Tacony+42
- Queen Ln+40
- Wynnefield Av+35
- Tulpehocken+21
- Sedgwick+20
- Penn Medicine Station+15
- 49th St+14
- Cheltenham+10
- Upsal+3
- Fox Chase+2
- Airport Terminal A—
- Airport Terminal B—
- Airport Terminals E & F—
- Eastwick—
- Forest Hills—
- Highland—
- Holmesburg Junction—
- Ivy Ridge—
- Somerton—
- St. Martins—
- Wyndmoor—
New homes the /TOC bonuses would allow on underused lots with eligible zoning within a quarter mile of each station. Neighboring stations share lots, so station figures can add up to more than the line total, which counts each lot once. Girard Avenue and other trolley stops are not included: they must also meet a separate eligibility test that we have not modeled yet. See every lot on the TOC Scenario Map.
Methodology & Data Sources
Parcel data: Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment (OPA) via CARTO. 551,712 parcels citywide. Capacity figures use parcel data as of October 8, 2026.
Zoning capacity: BPN’s zoning rules engine implements the Philadelphia Zoning Code (Title 14) dimensional standards and converts the floor area each lot is allowed into homes. The figures in Sections 2, 3, 5, and 8 come from BPN’s council-district memo engine, the same figures shown in each district’s fact sheet and on the TOC Scenario Map. They are zoning capacity, not forecasts of construction.
Underused lots: capacity is counted only on lots under 20,000 square feet whose existing buildings use less than about a third of what their zoning allows, with /TOC-eligible zoning, within 1,320 feet of a station entrance. Each lot is counted once. The 30% floor-area bonus (CMX-3, CMX-4, CMX-5, RMX-3) and the 50% unit bonus (CMX-1, CMX-2, CMX-2.5, RM-1) are both applied only to these lots.
Construction costs: Eriksen & Orlando, “Returns to Scale in Residential Construction,” Real Estate Economics (2022). Philadelphia costs: $166/sqft (1-3 stories), $171/sqft (4-7), $216/sqft (8+). Used for the qualitative discussion in Section 4 only; no capacity figure is adjusted for construction cost.
/MIN analysis: lots are assigned to /MIN by their recorded overlay designation, not by council district. For each underused lot inside /MIN, we report the homes today’s zoning allows there as gated by the affordability requirement. Inside /MIN, the /TOC unit bonus is counted as zero: the law bars only the floor-area bonus there, but homes built with the unit bonus would carry the /MIN requirement, so we leave them out.
What we do not claim: earlier versions of this memo reported a “realistic yield” that subtracted homes for the construction cost cliff, and a /TOC-specific deterrent derived by multiplying a difference-in-differences rate by a capacity ceiling. Both have been withdrawn. This memo reports zoning capacity and the capacity /MIN gates, and cites the MIN study’s overlay-wide estimate (1,000–1,400 fewer homes against a market-strength-matched control) without allocating it to station areas.
Transit proximity: 1,320-foot buffers around station entrances for all 98 Broad Street Line, Market-Frankford Line, and Regional Rail stations. Section 1 compares 500-foot and 1,320-foot buffers around the 13 designated stations.
BPN’s zoning rules engine is open source. For questions, contact jon@buildphillynow.org.
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